Brisbane Weekly Auction Data

I'm currently in the midst of a typical Queensland thunderstorm, quite a nice sunset in between two cells that are rolling through.

I've begun tracking the number of Brisbane auctions and the corresponding clearance rate on a weekly basis as below:

Number of auctions as shown are on the rise, I'd take a guess and believe there's more stock coming online and the latest auction data from this week showed seven auctions within the Brisbane city in high rise apartments.  Most of which were unfortunately passed in.

Despite the increasing number of auctions, there has been a decrease in the number of noted cleared auctions. Hopefully not a sign of decreasing demand for properties. Going forward whether it's worth looking at which properties in which suburbs are being sold or passed in might be something I look at next week for further information.

Why Not?

One of the most frustrating things I come across daily within my own life and those of others is limiting your life because you simply cannot do something. I for one seem to face this dilemma every day whether it be at work, in the gym or in my own personal life. It's made me wonder why must I always look to the negative (and mostly) the easy option by opting out of whatever I want to do.

Finances

An example of this is facing my credit card bill, when I get that notification email stating my account balance is in I will ignore it up until the last few days before payment is due and then I will take a quick glance and then pay it. This is a poor habit in mindset because it does not let reflect on any unnecessary spending habits that I may have accrued during that month and I am unable to learn from any mistakes in the past. I choose to ignore the credit card bill because I don't want to face the reality of what has happened during the month even though I very well have a rough idea of any silly purchases I have made.

As I have goals to attain some sort of financial wealth in the next 10-15 years, it's a necessity that I start looking at my finances weekly until I get my spending habits in order. To understand finances better we must continue to do the basics:

• Check our account balances once a week;
• Open bills AS SOON AS YOU RECEIVE THEM and PAY THEM AS SOON AS POSSIBLE;
• Create a budget;
• Begin to get out of debt; and
• Set longer term financial goals.

So far I've managed to create a budget and set longer term financial goals but I still need to work on checking my account balance and opening bills/paying bills as soon as possible. With regards to debt, the only major debt I have at moment is my HECS debt and to be honest I don't see any value in downplaying that debt any quicker due it's low interest rate compared to storing my money in other investment devices. A good article for further tips is here.

Health & Fitness

The biggest issue that those facing major health & fitness goals is get yourself into the right mindset through your desire and using this desire to create the motivation to achieve those goals. Too often I hear excuses of people being unable to do something because they simply physically can't but the solution to rectify the issue is right in front of them, they choose not to go down that route. I guess what I'm saying is whenever we feel down and out chasing our dreams we must take things in perspective and realise that what we're embarking on has been done before, it will hurt but it's for a good cause and overall we must enjoy what we're doing instead of believing that dieting or exercising is the devil in our life.

Overall, instead of saying I can't do something because of a reason. Ask your what is that reason and how can I remove that reason.?This is a better way of getting perspective on the problem you are facing and can offer alternate views and possibly finding alternative ways in addressing the issue to lead to further success.

Pareto Observaton of Stock Market

A great quote from the book The 80/20 Principle by Richard Koch.

There is rhythm of sentiment which we can observe in ethics, in religion and in politics as waves resembling the business cycle...

Whereas during the upward trend every argument produced in order to demonstrate that an enterprise will produce money received with favour; whereas such an argument will be absolutely rejected during the downward trend.. A man who during the downward trend refuses to underwrite certain stocks believes himself to be guided exclusively by reason and does knot that, unconsciously, he yields to the thousand small impressions which he receives from the daily economic news. When, later, during the upward trend, he will underwrite those same stocks, or similar shares offering no better chance of success, he will again think that he is following only the dictates of reason and will remain unaware of the fact that his transition from distrust to trust depends on sentiments generated by the atmosphere around him..

It is well known at the Stock Exchange that the public at large buys only in a rising market and sells in a declining market. The finances who, because of their greater practice in this business, use their reason to a greater extend, although they sometimes allow themselves to be swayed by sentiment, do the opposite, and this is the main source of their gains. During a boom period any mediocre argument to the effect that this boom must continue has a great persuasive power and if you tried to tell man that, after all, prices cannot continue to go up indefinitely, be sure would not listens to you.

Newstead Oversupply

Been a while since I've posted, need to back into the game.... or just simple stop playing Fallout 4.... Anyway, each day slowly my view from my work office desk of the Brisbane River out to Hamilton and the Gateway Bridge is becoming obstructed by an influx of medium rise residential apartments being built in Newstead.

Newstead is an upmarket suburb with industrial historical roots with over 82% of the dwellings being units and only 15% stand alone houses. The area is slowly being developed into a mini apartment city with the Brisbane City Council zoning a large area of the suburb as medium to high density living.

Brisbane City Council

The areas in my photos show the red zones (high density) in the image above and with a large part of the area to be dominated with high density properties it's only a matter of time until the supply outlasts the demand. This can be further reinforced through data from SQMResearch and realestate.com.au by comparing the stock on market for the suburb to the average number of visits per property to just get a general gauge of what the demand for buying/looking into the suburb is like.

SQMResearch

SQMResearch

Realestate.com.au

Currently total property listings are at 344 available and only 222 visits per property. With many developments still yet to come online the number of property listings is set to increase at a rapid rate compared to the number of visits per property listing. Capital growth for units in the suburb has been steady but it makes you wonder what is going to be the result of all this supply becoming available in the near future.

80/20 Principle

Currently I am reading a book about the 80/20 Principle and it's application in a business and financial sense but it makes me wonder how it would be applicable for weight loss and general fitness.

I am someone who has planned my meals Monday to Thursday with Friday being a bit loose as I usually go out for lunch at work and then from there on things start to slip on weekends. Unfortunately this probably does more damage than I am able to recover during the week Monday to Friday. The 80/20 principle states that 20% of your effort has 80% of the effect, this case the "20%" of the weekend has the effect of 80% of my diet as usually the calorie intake and output is much higher than what I'm able to achieve during the week. This essentially means we shouldn't be worrying so much during the week, the fact we are at work we are able to easily perform routine health and fitness activities and it's during the weekend that we should be focussing 80% of your effort.

During our health and fitness adventures we should celebrate those moments we are achieved something remarkable such as achieving your first 5km in 10 years or reaching a goal weight you had not been at for many years. Instead of focussing on the average achievements we are able to gain a lot more from celebrating the bigger achievements which took more effort but had a bigger net positive result.

A successful fitness plan is a simple fitness plan where individuals are able to take short cuts to achieve more with less effort. A simple "short cut" could be planning your meals for the weekend rather than thinking on the fly. By having a fitness plan we are able to exercise control over our lives with the least possible effort because the planning of our weeks allows us to act with minimal thought.

By focussing on weekends primarily we are able to strive for excellence in the time that counts most, spending more time worrying about the weekday health and fitness won't result in anywhere near the same positive results for you.

We should look for help as much as possible, by out sourcing certain tasks such as exercise (personal training) or food (youfoodz/light n easy) we are able to remove further stress from our lives in not having to think about those certain elements in our health and fitness plan.

More importantly, our health and fitness plans should have things that we enjoy. There is no point eating stacks of fish if you don't like fish.

Finally we must enjoy the journey. We must calm down, work in an efficient manner (what's the point of exercising every day?!) and set a limited number of valuable goals where the 80/20 principle will work for us. An example of a very simple goal could be, on weekends I will only have one bad meal on Saturday. By focussing on the areas where we slip up most we are able to negate the most damaging aspects of our lives. Health and fitness shouldn't be a chore, it's something fun and it's only when one has fun is where they will see their results compound. Treating it as a chore will get you no where as you will constantly find ways to have a negative perspective on your journey.

Property Investing Seminar Recap

On Wednesday I had the opportunity of watching a Rich Harvey webinar Property Investing in 2016 - Where are the opportunities, here is a recap focussing primarily on the Brisbane real estate market.

National and Brisbane Real Estate

• National owner occupier home loans are currently on the rise and have rebalanced the market, now sitting at 62/38 ratio which is normal market level.
• Nationally, first home buyers account for 25% of all real estate sales (so much for the "lock out" of first home buyers in the market).
• Nation wide, 73% of home loan borrowers are ahead on their mortgage by an average of two years. 
• Those articles on the "Australian Property Bubble" are just click bait articles as a crash in the property to occur as the Australia economy is unlikely to happen similar to the United Stated as the critical conditions in Australia don't exist and the APRA regulations ensure stability in the housing market.
• People have asked why has the Sydney property market boomed and not states such as Queensland, South Australia or Western Australia? The NSW state economy is currently the strongest in Australia especially with their current infrastructure spending and in the prime growth areas there is a significant absence of property oversupply.
• Brisbane has lots of upside for the future.
• Brisbane homes are currently at 2.9% growth rate, apartments are at 2.1% growth rate.
• Currently 69 growth suburbs and 128 steady suburbs.
• More growth in the market than what is anticipated in Sydney (measured through price prediction index).
• Areas to look out for are in Brisbane South East and North:
• North side: Deagon, Enoggara, Gaythorne, Northgate (top performe, Nundah, Taigum, Wavel Heights and Chermside.
• South Side: Macgregor (top performer), Robertson, Rocklea, Sunnyback, Tarragindi, Fairfield, Mackenzie and Rochedale (top performer).

Mistakes - How to Avoid Them

• Herd mentality - Following the pack.
• FOMO Syndrome - Eg. Late comers to Sydney Market.
• Sound Byte Method - Investing based on media propaganda.
• 75% of property investors fail because they don't prepare and don't have a goal and plan in place.
• Research and quality advice is the key through (successful investors use a buyers agent - please note this webinar was sponsored by a buyers agent..)
• Have to know what your goals are, what is my strategy, my tactics, risk profile and borrowing capacity?
• Have to ask why this investments? Who is providing the information Who is paying for the advice? Is this the best investment current available?
• Conduct sufficienct research.
• Use successful negotiation techniques.
• Don't buy with emotion.
• Understand the property market.
• Don't buy for a tax deduction.
• Conducting poor investment analysis.
• Procrastinating.

The Devils Workshop

A bit of a self analysis post here, trying to understand my thinkings and mindset. I've answered this questions as quick as possible going with my first thought rather than trying to think an fabricate an answer. A good one for anyone to do to find a little bit more about themselves.

1. Do you complain often of "feeling bad'? If so, what is the cause?
No

2. Do you find fault with other people at the slightest provocation?
Yes

3. Do you frequently make mistakes in your work? If so, why?
Not to my knowledge.

4 Are you sarcastic and offensive in your conversation?
Depend who I am with

5. Do you deliberately avoid the association of anyone? If so why?
Yes, if first impression of the person is not good I will hold that impression until proven others.

6. Do you suffer frequently with indigestion? If so, what is the cause?
No

7. Does life seem futile and the future hopeless to you? If so why?
Not all the time, the occasional thought will exist when working conditions are unstable.

8. Do you like your occupation? If not why?
I enjoy my occupation but engineering probably isn't my true passion in life, it's just something I've ended up doing.

9. Do you often feel self-pity? If so, why?
No

10. Are you envious of those who excel you?
Yes

11. To which do you devote more time thinking of: success or failure?
Success I hope

12. Are you gaining or losing self-confidence as you grow older?
Gaining self confidence

13. Do you learn frothing of value from all mistakes?
Yes but I don't take any physical record

14. Are you permitting some relative or acquaintance to worry you? If so why?
Sometimes parents do but usually not

15. Are you summits "in the clouds" and at other times in the depths despondency?
Yes

16. Who has the most inspiring influence open you? What is the cause?
Fiance and my own ambitions have biggest influence due to wanting more success and to provide finance with lifestyle she wants

17. Do you tolerate negative or discouraging influences that you can avoid?
I prefer to avoid it

18. Are you careless of your personal appearance If so, when and why?
No

19. Have you learned how to "drown your troubles" by being too busy to be annoyed by them?
No

20. Would you call yourself a "spineless weakling" if you permitted others to do your thinking for you?
No

21. Do you neglect internal bathing until autointoxication makes you ill tempered and irritable?
No

22. How many preventable disturbances annoy you, and why do you tolerate them?
Things such as whistling and humming annoy me, I have to tolerate them as I would be rude to question it

23. Do you resort to liquor, narcotics or cigarettes to "quit your nerves" If so, why do you not try willpower instead?
No

24. Does anyone "nag" you, and if so, for what reasons?
No

25. Do you have a definite major purpose, and if so, what is it and what plan have you for achieving it?
I now have a definite major purpose in life. I want to have at least $1 million net assets by 40 years old with passive income covering all major expenses. This will be done by investing 5% weekly pay fortnightly into an index fund and 5% weekly pay into a listed investment company. These numbers will be increase to 15% total investment with another product before getting to at least 20% invested by 35 years old. Principal home is to be bought by thirty with at least one or two investment properties available bought through Metropole. In the short term I will cut down expenditure to ensure the wedding and honeymoon can be paid for and locations wanted to go are able to be visited.

26. Do you have suffer from anyone of the six basic fears? If so, which ones?
The only fear I could think of having is loss of love.

27. Have you a method by which you can shield yourself against the negative influence of others?
I need to avoid and cut all friendship ties to those who are negative influencing my dreams and aspirations.

28. Do you make deliberate use of autosuggestion to make your mind positive?
No

29. Which do you value most, your material possession or your privilege of controlling your own thoughts?
Privilege of controlling your own thoughts

30. Do others easily influence you, against your own judgement?
Only when I am in a position where I am unsure of the answer or action that I am easily influenced

31. Has today added anything of value to your stock of knowledge or state of mind?
Yes I learnt about gentrification and the oversupply suburbs in Brisbane.

32. Do you face squarely the circumstances that make you unhappy, or sidestep the responsibility?
I side step the responsibility and need to take forward steps to make changes and fix any issues.

33. Do you analyse mistakes and failures and try to profit by them, or do you the attitude that this is not your duty?
Depends on the situation but I usually try to mind my own business

34. Do you encourage other people to bring their worried to you for sympathy?
I will sometimes let people vent when I realise something is wrong so they can release their issue as soon as possible but I don't get too caught up emotionally in the situation.

35. Do you choose, from your daily experiences, lessons or influences that aid in your personal achievements?
Yes

36. Does your presence have a negative influenced on other people as a rule?
I hope not, perhaps it does on those I do not with associate with.

37. What habits of other people annoy you most?
Whistling, humming, binge drinking, settling for life gives them and not giving more

38. Have you learned how to create a mental state of mind which you can shield yourself against all discouraging thoughts?
No, I usually just walk away from the problem or fight the issue and get too involved.

39. Does your occupation inspire faith and hope?
No

40. Are you conscious of possessing spiritual force of sufficient power to enable you to keep your mind free from all forms of fear?
No

41. Does you  help you to keep your own mind positive?
I do not have a religion but my mind is somewhat a positive first

42. Do you feel it your duty to share other people's worries? If so, why?
I avoid sharing other peoples problem as I don't want to be a gossiper spreading information that was told in confidence.

43. If you believe that "birds of feather flock together", what have you learned about yourself by studying your friends you attract?
Overall a nice person with some rough around the edges and no where near perfect.

44. What connection, if any, do you see between the people with whom you associate most closely, and any unhappiness you may experience?

45. Could it be possible that some person you consider to be friend is, in reality, your worst enemy because of their negative influences on your mind?
Yes and I need to identify those and slowly phase it out.

46. By what rules do you judge who is helpful and who is damaging to you?
Usually if they disagree with me I'll naturally go on the back foot and start finding ways to fight back but depending on how much respect I have for them is how i'll determine if they're helpful or not.

47. Are your intimate associates mentally superior or inferior to you?
Depends on the situation, I'd say we compliment each other. I may just have slightly more drive to succeed goals.

48. How much time out of every 24 hours do you devote to:
a) Occupation - 9 hours
b) Sleep - 7 hours
c) Acquiring useful knowledge - 2 hour
d) Plain waste - 6

49. Who among your acquaintances
a) Encourages you the most - Parents and partner
b) Cautions you most - Parents and partner
c) Discourages you most - No one in particular
d) Helps you most in other ways - Mentors

50.What is your great worry? Why do you tolerate it?
Greatest worry is not succeeding at my life goals, I haven't been able to tolerate it because I wish to achieve more but haven't action the proposed plans as I'd like to.

51. When others offer you free, unsolicited advice, do you accepted it without question or analyse their motivates?
I will analyse their motivates and be very skeptical.

52. What, above all else, do you most desire? Do you intend to acquire it? Are you willing to subordinate all others desires for this one. How much time daily do you devote to acquiring it?
I desire financial freedom and happiness the most and am willing to take risks and chances to get there. I aim for at least an hour a day in acquiring knowledge to reach this goal.

53. Do you change your mind often? If so, why?
No

54. Do you usually finish everything you begin?
Not as much as I'd like to and it depends on my motivation levels.

55. Are you easily impressed by other people's business or professional titles, university degrees or wealth?
Yes

56. Are you easily influenced by what other people think or say of you?
Yes and to be honest I would like to know more of it.

57. Do you cater to people because of their social or financial status?
No I feel my friends are because we get along well and the social/financial status isn't something I worry about. In fact, I am skeptical of richer people and can get on board the tall poppy syndrome.

58. Whom do you believe is the greatest person living? In what respect is this person superior to you?
I don't have anyone in particular that I idolise, I have many people that I idolise because they are in a state in their lives where they are happy, financially free and working on a passion project.

59. How much time have you devoted to studying and answering these questions?
This questionnaire took about 10-15 minutes as I answered with the answer that came first.

Brisbane Cafe Hot Spots and their Effect on Unit Real Estate Prices

Gentrification
Gentrification is the process of regeneration and urban renewal, usually entailing commercial and residential property being bought and renovated by wealthier individuals turning run down "cheaper" suburbs into popular in demand suburbs due to the culture of neighbourhood changing as low income families are driven out to either cashing in on the capital growth of the suburb or pushed out over time and consequently replaced by higher income residents.

Over time, the process of gentrification can completely revamp areas by creating shopping streets lined with trendy bars and cafes. For example in Brisbane, the early phase gentrification occurred in the 1970's where areas such as Spring Hill and Paddington underwent renovation as middle class workers moved into and renovated existing tin cottages and timber houses.

With food culture becoming one of the major lifestyles we all indulge in finding real estate in suburbs with a great cafe culture is important to ensure the property is within walking distance to the hot spots. These cafes serve as great places to meet up with friends, have family lunches and breakfast and indulge in the Aussie way of brunch.

Now whilst this approach of mine is abstract, I've basically looked through Zomato.com and located which suburbs have the most popular cafes in Brisbane and then went on to look at the median two bedroom apartment pricing.

Top 10 Suburbs

Median Property Price (2 Bedroom Apartment)

I've plotted the unit median price growth for each of the above suburbs, grouping Fortitude Valley and CBD together and also South Brisbane and West End have been considered as a single suburb.

The comparison graph shows that West End/South Brisbane is powering ahead in Capital Growth as well as Paddington. New Farm has not performed as admirably as the rest with some downturn in recent times, however it is by far the best performer in the last 5 years and the trend surely is expected to continue given the limited stock on the market.

Stock on Market vs Visits per Property

This graph I've just added on the fly, it is a ratio of the Stock Market and Visits per Property. The higher the percentage number, the more oversupply is suggest for the area and highlights the lesser interest of buyers wanting to buy up in that area. Paddington and Woolloongabba are those with the best ratio, Paddington especially as it lines up with the strong capital growth experienced in the area.

I'll continue to do this every three months to highlight the better suburbs at a macro level for investing.

Alcohol and its effect on the human body

As someone in my mid 20’s, I am no stranger to the weekly nights out on the drink where I’d easily consume plenty of drinks up and beyond 10 drinks in a nightly session. Obviously, while attempting to live a health clean lifestyle this weekly event most likely probably damages my weekly progress more than I can maintain and overturn.

I’ve decided to investigate the effect of alcohol on the body and see what exactly some drinks are worth.

Effect on the body

Unfortunately, unlike protein, carbohydrates and fats the human body cannot store alcohol. When alcohol is swallowed it travels down the oesophagus into the stomach and the small intestine. Here 80% is absorbed into the small intestine and 20% into the stomach. It avoids the the normal digestive process and goes straight into the blood stream. The body cannot store alcohol because one of the intermediate products of alcohol metabolism is acetaldehyde which is extremely toxic to our system.

One of the organs heavily affected by alcohol is the liver because it is the main organ that processes poisons such as alcohol, without the liver you could not live. For those that are heavy drinkers, this period can damage the liver due to free radicals which can attack the nearest stable molecule, leading to a dangerous chain reaction which can result in a disease called cirrhosis of the liver. Ultimately, cirrhosis causes scar tissue to replace normal, healthy tissue in the liver which restricts blood flow and forces the liver to not work as it should do. Alarmingly, on average, studies have demonstrated an increased risk of 19% for liver cancer per 10 grams of alcohol per day for woman, compared to only 3% for men. If one was to consume alcohol, a maximum limit of 2 per day for men and 1 drink per day for women should be applied up to 65. Anything above this can lead to the possibility of increased risk of liver cancer.

Now, one way to “ease” the effect of alcohol especially on your stomach is by eating. Alcohol increases acid in your stomach which can lead to extreme stomach pains or sores in the intestines. Food will slow down the rate of the absorption of alcohol into the body.

Unfortunately, the body will aim to break the alcohol first due its poison characteristics and not worry about the food. The somewhat high content of carbohydrate levels in alcohol can be damaging to our bodies because of our limited capacity to store those carbohydrates. Whilst drinking, the body will experience short term periods of excess glucose which promotes fat storage. As shown below, a simple 6 lager beers on a given night equates to 66 grams of carbohydrates which leads to those beers providing 12-16 times the glucose our bodies need to maintain homeostasis (property of our body system in which variables are regulated so that internal conditions remain stable and relatively constant).

Calorie Count in Popular Drinks

	Alcohol (g)	Carbs (g)	Fat (g)	Calories (kcal)
Spirits (45 mL)	13	0	0	100
Wine (150 mL)	13	5	0	120
Beer (355 mL)
Light	11	5	0	105
Lager	13	11	0	145
Ale	13	12	0	150
Stout	11.5	17	0	155
Liqueur (45 mL)	6	8.4	6.5	147
Mixed Drink (45 mL rum + 90 mL coke)	13	11	0	145

By increasing the levels of glucose when drinking, we enter the high toxic levels which our body must somehow expel this alcohol energy (from the macronutrients and calories) but also the blood sugar levels (glucose levels). The body then has two options to resolve this, oxidise the glucose or store it. However, if we have eaten plenty during the day and our glycogen stores are full then our bodies will use the excess glucose to create new body fat.

So what happens when we go out for dinner and then have some drinks? Firstly these meals usually contain a large amount of carbohydrates (I’m looking at you Little Greek Tavern) so our bodies aim to burn the alcohol first and then store our previous meals as fat storage which happen to end up in the belly (bye bye 6 pack).

The problem with alcohol metabolism is that it takes a very long time, as shown in the following image.

A simple four drinks can produce approximately SEVEN!! Hours worth of fuel and our livers can only metabolize between 7-15 grams/alcohol per hour.

Now let’s be honest, when we go out we’re not exactly having three drinks in the night. The issue is, we will have six to ten drinks in the night and this is on top of all the glucose and fat stored from all the food you have had during the day. So whilst we’re slamming down those brewskies and chowing down our filthy kebab at 3am our bodies are most likely still trying to burn through that alcohol at 8 or 9am the next day. On top of that, we have to contend with all the food we’ve eaten and we could only be resuming to normal metabolism levels at midday.

Conclusion

So now what? It’s impossible to get that shredded body and smash out benders every week. At some point it’s going to catch up and you’ll go from the single digit body fat % to double digit dad bod. Firstly, we are going to put on fat by consuming more calories so at some point we need to heavily restrict the calories we’re eating on the day of drinking. The body finds it tougher to convert excess protein into fat, so aiming to stick to lean proteins such as chicken and vegetables only (for carbohydrates) throughout the day can help limit the fat storage effects providing our calorie intake is suitable.

References

http://graemethomasonline.com/beach-body-or-beer-belly-alcohol-and-your-physique/

http://nihseniorhealth.gov/alcoholuse/alcoholandaging/01.html

http://sciencenetlinks.com/interactives/alcohol/ebook/pages/digestive-system.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeostasis

http://rippedbody.jp/how-to-drink-beer-and-not-screw-up-your-diet/