Tuesday 24 November 2015

Pareto Observaton of Stock Market



A great quote from the book The 80/20 Principle by Richard Koch.

There is rhythm of sentiment which we can observe in ethics, in religion and in politics as waves resembling the business cycle...

Whereas during the upward trend every argument produced in order to demonstrate that an enterprise will produce money received with favour; whereas such an argument will be absolutely rejected during the downward trend.. A man who during the downward trend refuses to underwrite certain stocks believes himself to be guided exclusively by reason and does knot that, unconsciously, he yields to the thousand small impressions which he receives from the daily economic news. When, later, during the upward trend, he will underwrite those same stocks, or similar shares offering no better chance of success, he will again think that he is following only the dictates of reason and will remain unaware of the fact that his transition from distrust to trust depends on sentiments generated by the atmosphere around him..

It is well known at the Stock Exchange that the public at large buys only in a rising market and sells in a declining market. The finances who, because of their greater practice in this business, use their reason to a greater extend, although they sometimes allow themselves to be swayed by sentiment, do the opposite, and this is the main source of their gains. During a boom period any mediocre argument to the effect that this boom must continue has a great persuasive power and if you tried to tell man that, after all, prices cannot continue to go up indefinitely, be sure would not listens to you.

No comments:

Post a Comment